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FPL 2019/20 Player Price Prediction
How much for Liverpool defence?
VIA LET'S TALK Fantasy premier league
What’s going on, everyone? My name is Andy. Welcome back to another FPL video. Today, we’re talking player price predictions for the 2019/20 season. I know FPL hasn’t launched yet, but I wanted to get some videos out there. You can consider this my summer training back for making videos when the game fully launches. I put out a post on YouTube the other day to ask you guys what players you wanted to see in this video, so I’ve taken a selection of them.
Mostly, the more popular players that I think people are interested in. We’ll go through that. Obviously, price increases, decreases or maybe even position changes. Before we jump into the specific players, it’s probably worth just briefly talking about what goes into a price rise or a decrease or even a maintain. The obvious one is how well did they do last season if they were in FPL.
If they absolutely smashed it and they beat players much higher price to them, you’d expect their price to go up. If they were from outside the league, so it’s a new transfer into the league, then you got to look at their record at previous clubs, how many goals do they usually score, how many clean sheets they’re going to help a new team get, and obviously which team they go to, new position as well.
If a midfielder gets put to a forward, you’d expect, at least, the prices probably remain the same, not go up too much. Obviously, it would depend on who the player is because you’re going to lose clean sheet potential. In the case of Liverpool, for example, if you move the midfielder to forward, that’s a hell of a lot of clean sheets. If they get 20 clean sheets as a defense, then that’s 20 points the midfielder loses and they can’t get their extra point for a goal as well. You’ve got to look at that.
New club, obviously, someone like Wan-Bissaka has been heavily linked to Man United. You’d expect a price increase for him anyway in this season because he was so cheap last year and he played every game he was available for. If he’s at Man United, you’d hope. Not necessarily given how they played last year, but you’d hope that Man United could get more clean sheets than Palace. You’d see maybe another 0.5 added on to his price tag or to bring him into line with the other Man United defenders, whatever they might be.
Potential as well, so maybe there was– Jotta, for example, started off the season pretty poorly last year, then got moved to that more forward position and absolutely smashed it in the second half of the season. Yes, you can’t look at the whole season for him. Obviously, they’ve got to decide whether he can produce for the whole season and maybe get more points. You’ve got to look at potential as well. If he smashed it in a different position, he’s probably going to be a forward next year.
If he keeps doing as well as he did, he’s going to score more points. You’ve got to look at that as well. The big one, I suppose, for me and probably for FPL, and I think they have balanced prices pretty well for the last couple of years, is whether a player is an auto-include or an auto-exclude. For example, you get someone like Jiménez, last year, 5.5. He’s almost a must-have because he was getting so many points with such a cheap price. Obviously, they couldn’t predict that.
I think 5.5 for a newly-promoted team was fine at the time. Salah, for example. You couldn’t now price him back down to 10 million because everyone would have him in his team. It wouldn’t even be a question. Once you put him at 13 million, you’ve got to think about whether you want to spend that money. Richarlison was suddenly 10 million. Obviously, you wouldn’t expect him to score as many points as the other players around 10 million.
That would be an auto-exclude from the squads at the start. It has to be a fine balance in points to actually give people some thought, “Is that really good value? Is that not good value?” Rather than, “Yes, I have to have him. He’s too cheap not to.” Let’s kick on and take a look at the players. Let’s get the top dog out of the way first, Mo Salah. Although I’ve not written it down, there’s obviously been a lot of discussion about whether he should be a forward this year instead of a midfielder.
Now, I think he’s going to be a midfielder, which is why I’ve put him down as 13 million. I think if he goes as a forward, he might get a slight price drop. Something like 12.5. The reason I think he’s going to be a midfielder again is, yes, he did play centrally, but he played 13 hours of 38 games according to Transfermarkt as a forward. The rest of it, he lined up as a right-winger, inside forward on the right. Whatever you want to call it, he’s listed as a right-winger.
Now, obviously, we know he plays more central than that. He usually comes in. If you look at his average position, it’s as central as Firmino and even closer to the goal. I think FPL are going to look more at how he lined up rather than exactly how he played. I think timing is key because he started as a right-winger on Transfermarkt. In the middle of the season, he played as a forward and that center-forward position. Towards the end of the season, he came back to a right-wing.
The fact that he started and ended as a right-winger, in terms of lineups means, I think, he’s going to stay as a midfielder. I can’t see him going forward. I think you’ve got to look to the likes of Mané and Sterling as well if you do that. I just think FPL needs a bigger overhaul to how they do positions and how they do point-scoring if they’re going to start moving people like Salah to a forward position.
It would definitely make it interesting, but I think he’s going to come in as midfielder. It’d be interesting too. There’s a good few accounts that think he’ll go as a forward, so we’ll wait and find out when FPL releases. In terms of price, 13 million, I’m not going to do a price increase. You could say he’s due to a price increase because he scored 303, I think, points, it was. Not last season, the one before. He’s got 259 points.
It’s not often a player scores that heavily two seasons in a row. Because they didn’t put him more than 13 million after scoring more than 300 points, which was ridiculous, he’s now come down 40 odd points. I just don’t see how they can give him a price increase from there. Also, a lot of it is psychological. I think as soon as they put a 13.5 or even a 14 million, that will then put him into almost the exclude category.
I don’t think it’d be an auto-exclude. I think there’s still some merit to doing it, but I just don’t see the price increase as well. I think you’ll see the likes of Sterling and Mané get pretty hefty– Especially with Mané, you get a hefty price increase. Sterling probably up to 11 and a half or 12 million. He’ll be close to Salah anyway. It’s already going to be hard to stretch your budget as is when you start off the season.
Obviously, lots of people are going to want Liverpool and Man City midfielders. I just think for Salah, it’s going to be 13 million because other players got quite close to him this year. He’s going to be a midfielder for me. Liverpool defense was one of the harder ones to predict because I think seven million is an absolute dead set. I do think there’s a chance they come in at 7.5. If you look at someone like Alonso, who, not this season but maybe previous seasons, was almost seen as must-have.
He came in at 6.5 this season. I think he got 165 points the previous season. Obviously, Trent got more than that this year. He got 185, didn’t play all minutes. Robertson, 213, the most a defender has ever got. Van Dijk’s got 208. I think with Liverpool, you have to look at the potential for clean sheets next season. It’s going to be exactly the same. I can’t see where they would keep a massively decreased amount of clean sheets.
Sure, they might not keep exactly the same, but they’re going to be right up there. Also, you’ve seen what the assist potential is for these two. It’s absolutely insane. I’m going to go for seven million. I just think if they go to 7.5, yes, it will make it tough. I think because we’re going to see increases in the premium midfielders and stuff as well, it’s going to be tricky to fit everyone in your team anyway.
I think at 7.5, people will start to be put off too much. Whereas seven, it’s still hard to get maybe double Liverpool defense because they’re so expensive, but getting one is good. If you want the second, you’ve got to pay a premium price of seven million. I think they’re all going to be priced the same. I didn’t put Van Dijk on this. I think Robertson, Trent, and Van Dijk have to be priced the same. Because as soon as they make someone cheaper, he would then become the go-to.
If these two are seven, Van Dijk, 6.5. I think at the start of the season when money is tight, you would just take Van Dijk. If you look at total points, Robertson, 213; Van Dijk, 208; and Trent, 185. Points per game, Trent was 6.4 because he didn’t play as many minutes. We saw some rotation, especially when Gomez was fit at the start of the season. Now, interestingly, I think there’s a chance that Trent will get put at 0.5 million cheaper.
I think that’s going to be a mistake because I think he has established himself as the right-back. Yes, Gomez could come back in, but Trent had such a good season. I don’t see why Klopp wouldn’t carry on with him. Obviously, his attacking potential is really good. There’s a chance he comes in 0.5 more. Arguably, if they’re all going to play every minute, Trent may have scored the most amount of points. They should be the same.
Van Dijk, 5.5 points per game. Robertson, 5.9. Obviously, with Van Dijk, you’re paying. Knowing that if he’s fit, he’s going to play every single game. My prediction for the Liverpool defense is seven million. I do think there’s a chance they come in at 7.5. I also think there’s a chance, if that happens, Trent may get the seven million price tag. We’ll see. With Harry Kane, I’m actually looking at a price decrease with him, I think.
He started the season last year at 12.5. Obviously, he’s been super consistent in the league ever since he came on to the scene. Didn’t do so well last year, but had a pretty big injury towards the end. In previous seasons, his lowest score was 191 points in the last four seasons. Otherwise, he’s got over 200. He is Mr. Consistent. We know he’s on penalties. He’s going to play every game that he’s fit. I do think that’s been part of the problem recently.
He has been played so many minutes for England and Spurs. Obviously had injuries as well. I think he’s needed a break. Hopefully, this summer will be the one for him. I do see a price decrease. One of the reasons is midfield and big at the back has meant that last season going with a cheap forward loan really worked. I think people are going to take that onboard this year and do that from the start, which is going to make it very difficult to convince people to go for premium strikers from FPL’s point of view.
I also think Agüero did so well last year, coming at 11.5, I think he started at. I think he’s going to see a decrease to 12. I think it makes sense to them, put Kane down to 12 as well, so you got to think about it. If you leave Kane at 12.5 and get Agüero up, it’d still be cheaper. I just think this is very tough given how good Man City are. If they don’t bring in another striker, then Agüero is going to play a considerable amount of minutes and absolutely smash it again.
For me, Kane is going to come down a bit. I’d actually like to see them maybe take a slight risk and put him at 11.5. The risk that, obviously, he might not score as well this year. It’d also make more people buy him, but at the expense of not having a midfielder. I don’t think they can do that because he’s been so consistent. For me, a slight decrease to make him maybe a little bit more of an interest over Salah at some points in the season and also to give you something to think about Agüero. For me, a price decrease for Kane from 12.5 to 12.0.
Raúl Jiménez is a massive FPL manager favorite last year, including mine came in a 5.5 million starting price and absolutely smashed it. He was the third high-scoring forward. Only less than Agüero and Aubameyang to 181 points, which was seven more than Vardy scored. He scored 174. Obviously, Vardy came in at nine million last year. Obviously, slight difference is that Vardy has done it before. We’ve seen him to be pretty consistent over the seasons now.
That was Raúl Jiménez’s first season in the Premier League. He’s definitely getting a big increase from 5.5. I think that’s absolutely, definitely 7.5 plus. I just think when you come in and you’re the third high-scoring forward and you beat Vardy and you play for a Wolves team that finished seventh, for no reason, they can’t do that again. We’re going to be looking at eight or 8.5 now. Now, I think if you go eight, it’s probably a little bit too low given that Vardy will probably at least nine. Maybe 9.5 again this season.
They’ve got to get him close to that. Obviously, the caveat is he’s only played one season. Can he keep it up? Will Wolves bring in another forward which could provide competition? Maybe he’ll see less minutes, get rotated more. Obviously, they do have Europe to contend with as well. I think this is a tricky one for them to price because they’ve got to do a big increase. You don’t want to, again, auto-exclude them. I think with Wolves fixtures, we’re going to see a pretty low percentage of owners to be honest.
Obviously, you get a lot of people to see how well he did and put him in their team. I think more folks and FPL managers will probably avoid him. Again, obviously, caveat. I could get the prices wrong. I think there is a chance at eight, but I think just below Vardy is how about pricing because he beat him in points. Can he do it again? Laporte actually found pretty easy to price. This is one that was suggested on YouTube.
Now, I’ve said that. Of course, this will be definitely the one that I get wrong. It’s going down as a 6.5. He started last season at 5.5. Points-wise, it wasn’t too far behind Trent Alexander-Arnold. Obviously, the Liverpool boy did really well. Laporte was the fourth high-scoring defender ahead of all the Chelsea lads. Azpilicueta came in at 6.5 last year. I think that’s where Laporte will get put for this year. It’s definitely not going to be 5.5 again, unfortunately.
I just think that’s actually going to be a really good price because it’s going to be slightly lower than the Liverpool defenders. For someone who’s probably got the potential to not maybe get 200-plus points but get close to them. Obviously, if he’s costed less money, then you don’t expect the same amount of points anyway. Not as much assist-potential as Trent and Robertson. Obviously, he could score goals, free kicks and corners, and stuff like that.
We have seen him getting the odd assist here or there as well. I just think with the center-back situation at City, Stones is not looking great. Kompany’s left now. Otamendi didn’t really get a look in last year. He can play on the left side of the two center-backs. He looks like he’s probably going to keep his position and not be rotated too obviously. It can happen, but we’ll have to wait and see what kind of players Pep brings in. He might bring in a couple of more center-backs and we’ll go from there.
Absolute double gaming here last year, got massive points in them. If it’s 6.5, I think someone that wants to take a risk for a few game weeks. As you can call it, a risk with City, given the amount of clean sheets they get, but going for him and saving a bit of money over one of the Liverpool. Maybe you go Laporte and Robertson instead of Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Spread your bets a bit and go for clean sheets from both teams. 6.5 for me. I’m pretty confident that one will come in for sure.
We’ll leave that one there. Thanks very much for watching. As always, make sure to give the video a like If you’ve enjoyed it. It really helps to subscribe. It’s going to be loads of new content going into the new season, especially once FPL is launched. The videos will be coming thick and fast. Subscribe and hit that bell see and avoid when the videos go live. Obviously, leave a comment below.
Let me know if you massively disagree with any of the prices. If you’ve got any other players that you want to predict yourself, leave a comment below and I’ll try and get back to as many as I can. Otherwise, I’m going to leave it there. As always, like, comment, share, subscribe, all of that good stuff. I’ll catch you soon. Cheers.